No! Of course it’s not a defeat. It can’t be. You have no idea. This is Chess! Putin is playing chess with the West. And the West is clearly losing.
Chess, the game of kings, is a noble game. No matter what the players have in mind: they themselves take no risks. It is the charactres that fall. They are placed in order to function. They have no will of their own, no value of their own. Their value is measured solely by their temporary usefulness to the player. Nothing is easier for the player than to sacrifice individual charactres in order to realise his strategy. In German, this is known as the ‘sacrifice of the pawn’. Loyalty is only one-sided, from the charactres to the player. If the pawns survive the game (i.e. remain in play), they will be removed until the next game. The players are happy, the charactres are finished.
Yes, it may be that we are indeed experiencing a gigantic game. We may be experiencing a re-run of the ‘Great Game’ that the Russian Empire once played with the British Empire over Central Asia (https://www.encyclopedia.com/politics/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/great-game
and https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/2491/111p179.pdf). And perhaps nothing else has ever been played in this world but the Great Game of powers with peoples and nations. Today they are playing it in Syria (and in the Donbass, and in Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Taiwan), tomorrow in Iran, the day after tomorrow….?
Three weeks after the surprising end of the Syrian Arab Republic’s public order and the takeover of the Western-created ‘rebels’ (https://thecradle.co/articles/manufacturing-rebels-how-the-uk-and-us-empowered-hts ) of Al-Qaeda, named: ‘Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’ (HTS), Israel as well as the USA and Turkey are directly militarily involved in Syria as occupiers, while Russia apparently has withdrawn to its two military bases in Tartous and Latakia and is negotiating with the ‚moderate‘ head-choppers in Damascus to maintain the bases. The cooperation of a state power with creatures whose organisation is classified as a terrorist organisation and banned at home is probably called ‘Realpolitik’ (politics based on opportunistic interests rather than morality).
1 HTS:
The new masters in Damascus themselves receive the first Western representatives, dream of an embassy in Jerusalem and generally have become quite civilian. While the leading charactres do appear in fine suits, their lower ranks happily do what they have been doing in Syria since 2011: murdering, robbing, looting, plundering, burning, raping, terrorising. Specialities of these premium terrorists include: Cutting off heads, burning women and children in ovens, firing rockets at schools. Apart from that, they are known experts in corruption and destroying public and private property. Even if one were to assume a positive will to govern constructively, the HTS is likely to find it difficult to establish and secure a social, economic and political order that is tolerable and sustainable for all Syrians. Public order and services of general interest, the core task (and raison d’être!) of any state, in the hands of paid murderers seems rather fragile to me. Competition, infights and power struggles between the individual groups or between established jihadist warlords would definitely make it more difficult for the HTS central government to get the country under its control and keep it there. The HTS governorate of Idlib is a striking example.
2 Israel:
Ostensibly for ‘self-defence’, in reality for ‘Greater Israel’, the Israeli army has moved into Syria. This bears the danger that Israel overextends itself, wears out its military capacities in a multi-front war, underestimates possible setbacks to its occupation, e.g. through growing resistance. Added to this is Yemen, which manages to fire its ‘Palestine 2’ missiles over 2000 kilometres into the ‘Ben Gurion’ airport in occupied Palestine, making Israel look like an impotent loudmouth (https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/30/739981/Yemeni-Armed-Forces-carry-out-over-dozen-anti-Israel-retaliatory-strikes-within-10-days). Now that Syria under HTS / Al-Qaeda has become a branch of Tel Aviv (https://thecradle.co/articles/new-damascus-governor-declares-our-problem-not-with-israel-as-tel-aviv-expands-occupation-of-south-syria), Yemen emerged as the new power in the axis of resistance. Iran can continue to support it from the background same like it supports the militias in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The resiliant people of Yemen cannot be defeated with air strikes alone (https://thecradle.co/articles/massive-israeli-attacks-pummel-yemens-main-airport-sanaa-pledges-response-in-kind ).A ground offensive by the Zionists and their US-American lackeys in Yemen was likely to be an absolute nightmare for the attackers: let us remember that Yemen successfully fought the army of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which had been pumped up with US weapons, for years and was even able to hit the Saudis‘ oil production facilities with its long-range missiles.
3 Turkey:
Should Erdogan set out to realise his dream of a New Ottoman Empire on Syrian territory (https://thecradle.co/articles/ankara-will-have-a-hand-in-drafting-syrias-new-constitution-erdogan ), he will collide there with Israel and its ‘Greater Israel Project’.
4 Kurds (YPG, SDF):
For their dream of ‘Kurdistan’, the Kurds have been cooperating with the CIA front organisation ‘FSA’ against the Syrian Republic. They have fought against the Syrian Arab Army and, under the protection of the Pentagon, claim to rule north-east Syria, where they have put their mark with ethnic cleansing against the native Arab and Assyrian Syrians living there. Via Turkey, the stolen Syrian oil flows into Israeli tanks and fighter jets. It remains to be seen whether the Kurds, who are now pandering to the HTS, will be chased away from the Syrian oil and wheat fields.
5. US-Americans:
The US-Americans had been waging their war against Syria for at least a decade and a half with various mercenary gangs from the bosom of their CIA operative Al-Qaeda (https://thecradle.co/articles/washington-trained-armed-extremist-groups-to-topple-syrian-govt) and should now, like the Turks and Israelis, see themselves as victors. As occupiers in north-east Syria (https://thecradle.co/articles/pentagon-confirms-around-2000-us-troops-deployed-in-syria), they are stealing Syrian oil in line with the announcement by the then US President Trump. There, however, they could come between the Turks and the Kurds (https://thecradle.co/articles/turkiye-demands-end-of-us-support-to-kurdish-militants-in-control-of-northeast-syria) and will then be busy taming this sack of fleas.
So is it Putin (https://thecradle.co/articles/putin-talks-fall-of-assad-russia-achieved-its-goals-in-syria) and Iran who have cunningly prepared a pit full of snakes for the US-Americans, Israelis and Turks in Syria? Since Putin has not achieved his publicly declared goals in Syria, he seems to have changed his goals.
So here we would have a very classic ‘Great Game’ chess match between the players Russia and Iran on the one hand and the Evil Empire (Israel and the US and any attached poodles) and Turkey on the other, who as supposedly opposing players are in fact all in the hands of their master.
If this is true, two questions now arise for me:
- Have Moscow and Tehran asked the Syrians (i.e. the people, not the costumed CIA agents of HTS) whether they are prepared to surrender their nation and their lives to geopolitical games?
- What will happen if the Evil Empire and Turkey do not go down in the Syrian snake pit but take the initiative to change the playing field?
Currently we do not have any evidence for the assumed reality of this game. The smooth transition of power in Syria makes the possibility of prior arrangements and agreements seem plausible. The battle-hardened Syrian Arab Army, which had successfully defended Syria for over 13 years against the Pest of humanity swept together from all dark, stinky corners of this planet, against money, weapons, diplomacy, political and economic warfare from more than 50 nations of this world, is withdrawing without resistance as if in one fell swoop, disbanding? The frontline officers who had to carry out the order to retreat knew exactly what would happen to the people of Aleppo if the army allowed this city to fall into the hands of the mass murderers who had been harbouring in the eastern part of Aleppo between 2012 and 2016. These officers will be aware of the Aleppians‘ spirit of resistance and the dogged determination with which the Syrian soldiers finally liberated Aleppo in December 2016 at an enormous cost in blood. The theory of mass desertion and abandonment by possibly corrupt generals and army leaders, which quickly spread in the West, is just one piece of the mosaic. No bribed general can prevent individual units from disobeying orders or soldiers from continuing to fight, desperate about the defeat and the foreseeable terrible consequences for their families and their country.
The Game theory recognises the situation in which a player apparently harms himself in order to achieve a higher goal. This theory could serve as an explanation for Putin’s behaviour: Putin, the player, drops Syria for other, higher goals (higher in whose sense?). Compared to the Syrians, who are falling into the hands of the head-cutters, Putin is not risking anything. Also, President Assad was saved. The alleged statement by President Assad (https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/12/16/statement-by-former-syrian-president-bashar-al-assad-on-the-circumstances-leading-to-his-departure-from-syria/) cannot be proven from here to be either genuine or fake. We must accept the statement made therein, according to which there were in fact no previous agreements (‘At no point during these events did I consider stepping down or seeking refuge, nor was such a proposal made by any individual or party.’). However, also in view of the events described by Assad himself, the question remains open as to which parties did not reach agreements – and whether this alone is a guarantee that no agreements existed. Whether President Assad was a player or a pawn cannot be determined at the moment.
Whatever the outcome of the respective game will be, the peoples of the world have no other fate to expect than being the pawns on the playing field of the great powers. However, these great powers no longer are autonomous nation states. In the age of globalised plutocracy, their supposed leaders (‘presidents’, ‘prime ministers’) are in fact little more than the salaried directors of companies that are states in name. Let’s call these companies, for example, ‘United States of America’, ‘Russian Federation’ or ‘People’s Republic of China’. That indeed does sound much loftier than ‘Vanguard’ or ‘Blackrock’, which as agencies actually control the states. They themselves belong to a very small, very select circle of personalities about whom it is better not to speak if you don’t want to be labelled an ‘anti-Semite’ and silenced. Now these agencies instruct their subordinate managing directors to take a seat at the table and play the predetermined game, while their masters, the owners of the companies, are high above the players and pull the strings. These masters always win in the end.
The bad news, as you may have already guessed, is: In the ‘Great Game’, the playing charactres are not carved wooden figures but people and peoples. Nations and territories are the playing field. Playing charactres and playing fields can change, the risk of defeat is borne solely by the people, peoples and nations.
But who forces the people and nations to be charactres in the game of others? They have no real obligation to serve the players. The players will play as long as they are able to place figures, i.e. people and nations, on the playing field. As soon as they can no longer do this, the game is over. Who is actually preventing the characters from finishing the game? Who prevents them from cancelling their loyalty, which is only one-sided anyway, and leaving the playing field of those who have played with them and want to continue playing? What keeps them on the field as characters other than their own complicity? Because unlike dead wooden figures, animated people have a will.
The good news at the end: there are people and nations who are not prepared to play the game.
The most colourful at the moment seems to be Yemen, whose people are making great sacrifices, but also the Lebanese Hezbollah, the militias in Iraq and the maltreated, genocide-stricken people of the Palestinians. We do not need to mention Gaza, do we? For weeks, Palestinians in Jenin have been bravely defending themselves against terror by the Israeli agency operating as the ‘Palestinian Authority’ (https://thecradle.co/articles/israel-pa-escalate-west-bank-raids-as-jenin-resistance-vows-no-surrender). And in Syria, the first significant resistance is forming around the „Tiger Forces“ elite unit of the former Syrian Arab Army, which continues to fight against HTS despite the demobilisation order (https://news.sky.com/story/syrian-forces-targeted-in-deadly-ambush-with-assad-loyalists-13279801 and https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/12/30/739994/Syrian-resistance-front-issues-statement-against-HTS-administration).
As an act of resistance, this refusal to be a charactre in the ‘Great Game’ seems primitive and limited. But firstly, the resistance to the players is alive and secondly, every refusal to play along proves that there is an alternative. He who fights can lose – he who does not fight has already lost. If the characters boycott the game, it ends.
The decisive test definitely is the attitude of active resistance against the genocidal occupiers of Palestine. Even in the most difficult times of its struggle for existence, Syria has remained loyal to Palestine and actively supported the Palestinians. The same applies to Iran, Hezbollah and Yemen. Wealthy Arab potentates have preferred to cosy up to Israel, just as HTS is now doing. And Russia’s inaction speaks a very clear language. Relying on the big powers is fatal.
The game continues. Sometimes the players change. So the only real constants are the stakes of the characters – and the masters of the game. Perhaps one day the masters will lose the loyalty of the characters. Then they will stand naked.
Animated people have the privilege of making decisions. That is why it seems important to me to think about how you want to have lived when you have to leave one day. The decision we derive from this is of significance beyond ourselves.
Stefan H. Heuer, M.A., historian, born in 1964, has worked as a lecturer in adult education and, among others, in Human Ressources development for an US-American company in Germany.